The bombings in Barcelona and Cambrils did not stop the independence process implemented by the Catalan government. On Monday, the parliament of Barcelona presented the project of what is called “Llei de Transitorietat Fundacion de la República” in Catalan, and what the Spanish media is now calling “Ley de ruptura” or “the Law of rupture”. In essence, the law by which the process of disconnection from Madrid should be approved and where the steps of the political, institutional and administrative process are defined in the event that the referendum (unconstitutional) of October 1st should be successful. The central government’s call to dialogue is worth nothing, not even the judgments by which the Spanish Constitutional Court has already announced that the referendum is absolutely illegitimate and devoid of any effectiveness. The Catalan independent front, headed by the chairman of the Generalitat, Carles Puigdemont, is now certain to continue in this battle and travels straight to a challenge, that of October, which leaves not only doubts, but also many risks, particularly on what will be the consequences of public order in case of a successful referendum. Specifically because a majority of Catalonia has already expressed itself against independence in the previous referendum and independent parties do not represent the majority of the Catalan population. It will therefore be interesting to understand how an illegal and minority referendum may eventually be the key to obtaining independence.
Nevertheless, the parliament approved this bill. A highly ambitious project, structured in dozens of articles ranging from territory to control over it, applicable laws, the transition period, and even the problem of nationality, which is believed to be dual: Spanish and Catalan. The problem is, however, that a regional law such as this has gaps that are not irrelevant in terms of national and international law, so much so that it is evident that there is a risk. There is a lot of perplexity, little certainty, and endless risks. First, by accepting the hypothesis that the referendum is going to happen -something that for now is uncertain-it would be clear that there would be an overthrow of public order capable of activating law enforcement. Spain has already provided a plan for using Civil Guard, National Police and the armed forces in case the independents decide to pursue this idea. This does not mean seeing tanks in Barcelona, but simply the intervention of the police to stop the elections.
Even if the referendum is to take place and win the “yes”, for now the polls do not reveal this possibility, there would then be the indispensable issue of a Catalan out of Spain, outside the European Union and out of any treaty. European states have already confirmed that they do not support the Catalan referendum, and despite many political support, especially in the radical left and on some independent fronts, Puigdemont is isolated. In Europe, Brussels has shown itself to be accountable to a regionalist system like the one wanted by the Basques, inside Spain but deeply autonomous. On the contrary, secession from a Member State would be a danger to the stability of the whole European system. European isolation would result in a Catalan out of the Union, although the Catalan independents are considered the most European region in Spain, so that in the breaking law it is written that any Catalan republic would consider all treaties in force and all the rules approved at European level even without belonging there anymore. A very clear message to Brussels, however, seems to have failed, especially since Madrid, in particular after the attacks, can not become the soft belly of the EU. And therefore, the only plausible alternative to Catalonia will be a foreign state to the EU and with a neighbor like Spain who would veto any Barcelona request for membership in European treaties.